James Madison

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	272.0
Current RPI:	272
Expected SOS:	173
Current SOS:	173
Current Record:	9-22
Expected Record:	9-22
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	284
Expected OOC SOS:	202

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-22	272.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for James Madison.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	53-69	L	0%
11-17	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	N	78-87	L	0%
11-18	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	N	73-65	L	0%
11-19	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	N	77-90	L	0%
11-22	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	105-99	W	100%
11-25	Radford (128.0)	BSth	A	69-68	L	0%
11-29	George Mason (201.0)	A10	H	72-76	L	0%
12-2	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	87-82	W	100%
12-5	The Citadel (281.0)	SC	A	84-82	L	0%
12-10	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	74-71	L	0%
12-16	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	67-76	W	100%
12-20	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	72-63	L	0%
12-30	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	70-81	L	0%
1-2	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	H	76-84	L	0%
1-5	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	87-81	L	0%
1-7	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	80-67	L	0%
1-11	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	89-82	L	0%
1-13	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	60-61	L	0%
1-18	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	85-74	W	100%
1-20	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	75-73	W	100%
1-25	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	71-68	L	0%
1-27	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	66-59	L	0%
2-1	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	76-74	L	0%
2-3	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	79-73	W	100%
2-13	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	62-61	W	100%
2-15	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	78-81	L	0%
2-17	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	66-69	W	100%
2-22	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	61-77	L	0%
2-24	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	68-66	L	0%
2-26	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	84-90	W	100%
3-3	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	N	70-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

James Madison's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

James Madison's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against James Madison.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
James Madison	CAA	26.40	26.40	27.66	27.66	-11.79	-11.79
Drexel	CAA	5.74	5.74	34.48	34.48	-1.78	-1.78
College of Charleston	CAA	4.33	4.33	75.86	75.86	2.24	2.24
Northeastern	CAA	4.28	4.28	66.67	66.67	1.43	1.43
William & Mary	CAA	4.27	4.27	55.56	55.56	0.47	0.47
Delaware	CAA	4.25	4.25	34.48	34.48	-1.32	-1.32
Elon	CAA	4.22	4.22	42.86	42.86	-0.60	-0.60
UNC Wilmington	CAA	4.22	4.22	28.57	28.57	-1.81	-1.81
Towson	CAA	4.20	4.20	57.14	57.14	0.60	0.60
Hofstra	CAA	4.17	4.17	57.14	57.14	0.60	0.60
Old Dominion	CUSA	1.89	1.89	77.42	77.42	1.04	1.04
FIU	CUSA	1.80	1.80	39.29	39.29	-0.39	-0.39
Charlotte	CUSA	1.80	1.80	18.52	18.52	-1.13	-1.13
Richmond	A10	1.74	1.74	35.48	35.48	-0.50	-0.50
George Mason	A10	1.72	1.72	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
UTSA	CUSA	1.69	1.69	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	1.67	1.67	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Appalachian St.	SB	1.61	1.61	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Florida	SEC	1.61	1.61	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
Northern Kentucky	Horz	1.61	1.61	67.86	67.86	0.58	0.58
The Citadel	SC	1.61	1.61	25.00	25.00	-0.81	-0.81
Weber St.	BSky	1.61	1.61	59.26	59.26	0.30	0.30
Marshall	CUSA	0.25	0.25	69.70	69.70	0.10	0.10
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.24	0.24	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.24	0.24	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
High Point	BSth	0.21	0.21	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Furman	SC	0.21	0.21	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
UTEP	CUSA	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.19	0.19	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.19	0.19	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Davidson	A10	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.11	0.11	76.67	76.67	0.06	0.06
VMI	SC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
East Carolina	Amer	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia Southern	SB	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01